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There are certainly better picks than others. What it comes down to is endurance and stamina keeping away from the distractions of Las Vegas. Simply put, your 1 trillion to one statements are raw math not taking into account of intelligence and everchanging information which ultimately contributes to the outcome of each pick.
Mathematically, however, it is not impossible. From a probability standpoint, every individual combination of wins and losses is equally likely to occur even in random results. Thus, flipping a coin you are equally likely to have heads come up times in a row as you are to0 have heads and tails alternate perfectly for the entire flips, or to get any other predicted combination of heads and tails.
Of course the odds against any particularly combination appearing at random are immense 2 multiplied by itself times Try it on your calculator and see how far you get before your calculator goes on tilt. The reason is that only one result will satisfy the requirement of any set combination. There are thousands of combinations that will provide wins and losses. Then divide the first number by the second number. But there is yeat another fly in the soup.
A result of wins and losses will do. In fact, any result that provides more than wins and even a few results sli8ghtly less than wins will do. That means we can add hundreds of thousands of possible combinations in the games that will get him to where he needs to be. Thus, the question, is: How did you calculate any of the probabilities you provide in the article? Do you have some formula that does it for you? A computer program perhaps?
A little transparency is necessary if you want to credibly prove something scientifically or mathematically. Without transparency, you are simply spouting propaganda and become as bad as muck you claim to be raking. Not every team is equally likely to cover the spread.
Much has to do with the ability of the line maker to be accurate,in predicting the game, and the line maker is not trying to pick the game accurately — he is trying to even out public sentiment, which is quite a different matter. Then the public comes in and moves the line further to correct for the errors of the line maker in predicting sentiment.
It is those errors in the line as a game predictor that account for the fact that year in and year out the Vegas casinos fail to hold their full 4. If we assume that a win is more likely that a loss, the odds against a final result providing between and wins in diminish further. Finally, you are engaging in circular reasoning.
In other words, you are providing a self-fulfilling prophesy. What sport are using for the results? How good is the line maker? How much has the line been skewed by public? What is the probability that any game will cover the given spread against any other team. It is like telling me that a golfer who averages strokes for 9 holes is unlikely to hit a hole in one. There are many things that cannot be proven mathematically.
In fact, mathematically people can an will win between 70 and games in even by just flipping a coin on spread games. We accep0t fingerprints as a means of identification even though the laws of probability tell us that there can and will be multiple people with the same fingerprints. We accept fingerprints, simply because duplication is not something we can find in millions of examinations.
Talk about his ttatement after the first loss that only the long run matters, and then doubling up into losses for no more reason than that there were two losses in the short term. Betting advice from Steve Stevens fits right in to the programming mix. As a statistician I think the accuracy of number of bets does not make any sense in sports betting. Profitable sports betting depends on the odds that the bookmakers offer. The win rate is how many wins you get from the number of bets you make.
Sounds great, right? Problem is, you may not have won very much money while compiling that 80 percent win rate. This is a common misconception newer sports bettors make and one way handicappers sell their services. Handicappers proclaim they can enable bettors to accumulate a high win rate. While that seems great, common sense should tell you that the NHL is a high-scoring league and games rarely finish If you wager on one NHL game to finish with over 1.
Of course. But how much money did you actually win from that bet? Not much. So, rather than believe handicappers who talk up their massive win rates, why not ask a more important question. A sports bettor, especially newbies, should be more concerned with the profits a handicapper makes rather than a win rate.
When you go to your local bookie, you are far more concerned with making profits and walking away with cash. By worrying about win rate, a bettor is too distracted — or afraid — to take advantage of the bets at his or her disposal. In fact, you actually run a real risk of damaging your bankroll in this fashion. If you happened to lose a bet, you would then lose a decent amount of money.
Is risking a large stake for a small profit really worth it?
The sports betting industry is one that lacks regulation, meaning anyone can start a company, website or used car salesman persona to start selling picks. Because there is no regulation, handicappers can tout false records and promises of unimaginable wealth in order to obtain business.
The data assumes 1, plays against the spread with a vig of over a calendar year, across all major US sports. As you can see, a sports bettor with no edge has only a 2. The data assumes 1, plays against the spread over a calendar year, across all major US sports. Unfortunately, both groups live in a world of denial and delusional rationalization. Complete nonsense for the long haul! Good blog! I really love how it is easy on my eyes and the data are well written. I am wondering how I could be notified whenever a new post has been made.
I have subscribed to your feed which must do the trick! Have a nice day! I agree with the premise of the article, just trying understand how they got the 2. Would like to talk about your college football records. If interested I can be emailed at tommydin gmail.
If you really had that ability, you could move to Las Vegas, place your bets at the sports books, and win millions of dollars each year. These guys are deadon!!! Sure, there may be an occasional, very,very rare exception, but just what are those odds???
Your article sort if glosses over your math and how you ran your regression. I know that might be a bit heavy for some people from a statistical explanation point I find this to be little light on details and proof. PJ is simply using the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. You can find the relevant formula in any introductory textbook on probability. All you guys got it wrong.
Stats can be skewed any way you want them to look so just look at the black and white. All that matters is performance, right? In sports betting all one needs is a There are certainly better picks than others. What it comes down to is endurance and stamina keeping away from the distractions of Las Vegas.
Simply put, your 1 trillion to one statements are raw math not taking into account of intelligence and everchanging information which ultimately contributes to the outcome of each pick. Mathematically, however, it is not impossible. From a probability standpoint, every individual combination of wins and losses is equally likely to occur even in random results.
Thus, flipping a coin you are equally likely to have heads come up times in a row as you are to0 have heads and tails alternate perfectly for the entire flips, or to get any other predicted combination of heads and tails. Of course the odds against any particularly combination appearing at random are immense 2 multiplied by itself times Try it on your calculator and see how far you get before your calculator goes on tilt.
The reason is that only one result will satisfy the requirement of any set combination. There are thousands of combinations that will provide wins and losses. Then divide the first number by the second number. But there is yeat another fly in the soup. A result of wins and losses will do. In fact, any result that provides more than wins and even a few results sli8ghtly less than wins will do. Another aspect to your potential return on investment is if you decide to pay for picks.
The average person with a full-time job, family commitments, and other hobbies is unlikely to have the time to fully research every aspect of a game to make an informed decision on whether or not a wager is a profitable one. If you purely stick to that, then you have a pretty solid idea of what you need to do in order to be profitable win more than With this in mind, you should only make wagers on picks you believe will pay-off more than However, you could also wager on the money line.
The money line is a wager on who will win the game. Instead of taking or laying points, the sportsbook will adjust the juice for each team based on how favored they are to win the matchup. Before making any wager, one should come up with the percentage of time they believe the pick will win and compare that number with the break-even percentage for that level of juice.
If you believe Team B is going to win Despite your confidence in this team, if they actually only win that game