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|Ghiyath mining bitcoins||Any more than fourteen horses could be a potential block risk. Below is a screen print of a recent race at Leicester. Whilst it is obviously an important factor in the race outcome, it is certainly not the be all and end all. So what is a good field size in which a fair run is granted to all the beasts? If you don t, do not panic! Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles.|
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|Msw betting nba basketball||You may or may not have all of these qualities in you. This gives up lots of laying opportunities. It will often take time for a horse to familiarise itself with a new surface. Silverthorne Publications, Inc. It is also possible for your bet to be part-matched. Jump horses mature more slowly and don't run until they are 4 or 5-year-olds. Below is an example of an on-line race card using European Odds.|
|Online betting age verification form||In this circumstance it really is up to you how to proceed. Laying a horse is like taking on the role of the bookie. Either it will have a popular trainer or the owner will have paid a lot of money for it. Conclusion There is one primary warning sign in our favour:. If you re new to.|
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However in handicaps the horses all carry different weights. The weight a horse carries is based on their ability which is assessed by the official handicapper. The highest rated horse carries the most weight and the one at the bottom carries the least. Theoretically every horses has the same chance of winning. This gives us plenty of scope for laying. Even more impressive are the stats for odds-on favourites in handicap races.
This is a staggering statistic and is down to the public overbetting on the favourite and guaranteeing you value. There are also different types of races depending on the quality of the field. We will be looking to lay horses in all these races. Maidens These are for horses that have never won a race before. Conditions Races Once a horse has won a maiden it can compete in conditions races. These are for winners of a race or winners of races of a certain value. Listed Races Once a horse has won a conditions race it can be entered into a listed race.
Group Races These are the most prestigious races for a horse on the flat. There are three groups 1, 2 and 3. Group 1 races are the most prestigious and carry the most prize money. Other types of races include; Auction races, Claiming races, and Selling races. This is because the horses involved are mediocre at best and it is very hard to be sure of laying the favourite. The five factors below are the primary variables you will need to assess the favourite on.
We need our horse to have a question mark concerning it's ability on at least one of these factors. The descriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm. The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally well on any type of going but many have a preference. What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before this will usually be in maiden races , or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going.
This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor.
It is well known that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be. Some horses are better at sprinting whilst others have more stamina and prefer longer races. As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance. You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Firstly a horse that is stepping up in trip for the first time.
Whilst a horse might have done well at the shorter distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned. Even at the shorter sprints a step up of a furlong can be significant. Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. Next time the horse runs 12 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity. Horses are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most recent runs it could be a laying opportunity.
Generally speaking a difference of 1. Of course this wouldn't be classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing against better opposition than it has before. What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions race simply because it won it's maiden comfortably.
However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own maidens. As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class category depending on the prize money available. The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:. Group Listed incl Cls 2 hcps.. Heritage open hcps The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst.
We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time. Usually the horse will be a 2 year old and will be running in a maiden. Some horses take to races like a duck to water whereas others need several races to get used to it all. The horse will be a short favourite due to its stable connections.
Either it will have a popular trainer or the owner will have paid a lot of money for it. Just because it has a tall reputation this does not mean it will run well. Hence a change of surface for a horse is also a big factor. If a horse is running on sand or turf for the first time then we will look to oppose it if other factors are also in our favour.
You will often find a consistent performer on the turf being a favourite on its AW debut but failing to live up to its reputation. It will often take time for a horse to familiarise itself with a new surface. Over the past 10 years laying horses on AW tracks has been more profitable than on the turf. One main reason for this is because punters try to apply turf form and ratings to the all weather.
They will overbet a favourite if it has done exceptionally well on the turf. This is because the flat season has finished and a lot of the form horses move on to the AW with good reputations and short prices, only to get beaten because they are not used to the surface. More often than not in stakes races every horse will be carrying the same weight and any slight differences are negligible. However it is in handicaps that weight becomes of the utmost importance.
One way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it is carrying significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over the horse. Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out. This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular course.
It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we should not lay. Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for each course. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it's horses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closest to the stable. When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc.
This gives it an immediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions. Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriously temperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track which as you would expect worsens their performance.
In fact sometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the favourite. To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite.
Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the trap of spending hours reading form. We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite. Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as well as how many lengths it won or lost by. One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite.
The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5 events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5 events. Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite. The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical examples I will take you through in a moment.
Once you have completed the first two processes you may have more than one qualifier. I use the following factors to build up a bigger picture of each race which helps me decide which favourite to lay. We need to be on the lookout for a horse that has not run for 60 days or is running again within 4 days of it's last run.
If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same principle as a football player lacking 'match practice'. However it is important to study the horse's previous race history. Some horses are notoriously good at coming back from a long lay off so if a horse has a history of this we need to exercise caution. If a horse runs within 4 days of it's last run it here is a chance it might not have recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina.
But again some horses can run well several days in a row so check it's past race history to be sure. Statistics show that favourites returning within 7 days on AW tracks have a good winning strike rate. DRAW The draw is simply the starting stall position of a horse. The lower the number the closer it is to the inside rail.
On some tracks this can be quite an important factor. Below I have included a course-by-course list that sums up the generally regarded opinion of the draw factor at all thirty-four flat courses in Britain. No significant advantage, although low numbers are favoured on the straight course in soft going. Low numbers favoured in big fields on the straight course, especially when the going is soft.
Apparently little effect though the five-furlong course here is on a gradual left-hand bend which might be thought to favour low numbers. High numbers up to 8f-noticeably favoured in 5f races. It seems low favoured on soft ground. Low numbers favoured in sprint races but high numbers when the going is soft. High numbers seem to have an advantage in races up to one mile. Over five furlongs low numbers appear to be favoured except when the ground is soft when high numbers seem to have an advantage.
No marked advantage either side. Low draw numbers appear to be favoured in sprints, but the crucial factor here is a quick break irrespective of the draw. High numbers seem to be the best on the straight course, whereas low numbers used to have a noticeable advantage in big fields when the going is soft, but the effect is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. High numbers are strongly favoured over five furlongs, a bit less so over six furlongs. Low numbers seem best from 7f to 10f.
Quite a significant advantage for high numbers in sprint races Little effect although perhaps low numbers are best in sprints, though a fast start is equally important. Middle to high numbers best in sprints, especially on soft ground. High numbers favoured in sprints, especially when the going is soft. On the sprint course a high number is advantageous when stalls are on the far side especially in softer High numbers usually best on round course. Middle to high numbers favoured on the straight course.
Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints on the allweather course: on the turf course high numbers appear to be favoured. High numbers favoured in races up to 8f. No significant advantage, but perhaps high numbers best in large fields, especially in very soft ground. Little significant advantage over any distance on either the Rowley Mile or the July Course.
High numbers favoured in sprint races when stalls on stands side, low numbers when stalls on far side. Low numbers favoured in sprint races. Low numbers tend to be favoured in sprint races on soft going. On the five-furlong course high numbers have an advantage when the ground is soft and when the stalls are placed on the far side; low numbers are favoured when the stalls are on the stands side.
No advantage in straight five furlongs: low draw favoured over six and seven furlongs. Significant advantage for high numbers on the straight course, more pronounced when the ground is fast. Low numbers favoured in shorter races except when the going is soft, in which case the stands side tends to run faster.
High numbers best. High numbers favoured in sprints. Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints. High numbers slightly favoured on the straight course, especially in large fields. Little effect either way. Perhaps low to middle numbers best on the straight track, especially when soft going prevails. The higher the size of the field the better. The more runners there are the more chance the favourite will be held up by another horse.
This factor is more important in maidens than other races. Often you will see inexperienced horses getting in each other's way in these races. If the favourite won it's last race then this will guarantee us more value in our lay. Most of the public overbet a LTO winner and this gives the favourite lower odds than it deserves. This doesn't necessarily mean that an experienced jockey will be best. Each jockey has a different technique of racing.
Some like to push their horse hard while others prefer to be gentler. Obviously some horses run better depending how they are treated during the race. To quickly see if a horse and jockey are a good partnership glance at the racing history of the horse to see if the jockey has been placed on that horse before. If it hasn't then it is quite possible they do not work well together and this could be another factor in our favour.
A relatively unknown fact is that female horses perform badly on the sand. If a short priced favourite is a filly or a mare, and other factors are conducive, it is ripe for laying. Generally the favourite will be in form but it's important to check anyway. We are not concerned with finishing position but how far it won or lost by. Most punters simply look at the finishing position but we will look a little deeper. We want to check whether the horse finished within length per furlong of the winner in its last 2 runs.
If it did then I class this as good form if it didn't then I class this as out of form. This means it is quite possible for the favourite to have finished 2nd on it's previous two runs and still be classed as out of form. Of course if a favourite has won it's last two runs then that is considered very good form.
If it won the races by more than length per furlong then I consider this excellent form. I also check the form of the horses in the race I have identified as potential rivals to the favourite. I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way.
I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have. Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total them up. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box. However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the biggest total, although that is generally the case. I like to look at the bigger picture. For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors.
This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more and more horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds. The above card comes from a class 4 2YO stakes at Musselburgh over 5f on goodfirm ground.
Primary Warning Signs Looking at the Postdata table there are no immediate warning signs. The horse has a tick for both the going and the distance so we have to look in further detail at it's racing history. We can immediately see that Stir Crazy is carrying more weight than it ever has before.
It is carrying 8lbs more and in fact is carrying the heaviest penalty in the race. As this horse is inexperienced I feel this increase in weight is significant enough to count against the horse. Furthermore looking back at the horse's history it's only win came when it was carrying significantly less weight than in today's race.
We can also see that the horse is stepping up in class from it's previous race. Stir Crazy has done relatively well in class 5 events but when raced in a class 3 it was well beaten. Today's race is a class 4 event and I feel this is enough of a step up to count as a warning sign in our favour. This is not enough to scare us from laying this horse. So we have two primary warning signs in our favour weight and class and this is enough for us to proceed. Opposition Now we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we can find one with similar ability to our favourite.
The Mighty Ogmore looks to be a very serious challenger to our favourite. It is carrying more weight than it ever has before which is the only primary warning sign against it although it is sill 5lbs lighter than the favourite.
The favourite has only performed well in class 5 events but this horse has won a class 4 event in its previous race and seems to be getting better and better with every run. This horse certainly matches the favourite in terms of ability.
Emma Told Lies is another horse with only 1 primary warning sign against it. Like the favourite it is moving up in class. This horse has had similar race results to that of our favourite. In fact Emma Told Lies has won two class 5 events previously giving it more wins than the favourite.
This is certainly another horse with the potential to win the race. Granny Peel is also stepping up in class and has question marks over her weight which puts her on a par with the favourite. This horse has also won a class 5 event before and overall has a better racing history than Stri Crazy. Granny peel has been placed in every one of it's races and has won 4 times before. This horse certainly has as much chance of winning the race as the favourite.
Secondary Warning Signs Finally we need to see what secondary warning signs are in our favour to see if we can strengthen our position on laying this horse. Looking at the days since last run figure we can see that Stir Crazy last ran 1 day ago. This is certainly in our favour as the horse is unlikely to have fully recovered from this race and this will effect it's performance. According to the Racing Post the draw favours no horse. Stir Crazy is in stall 2 and will have no such advantage.
Conclusion There are two primary warning signs in our favour:. Stir Crazy is carrying more weight than it ever has before which will hamoer its progress. Stir Crazy is stepping up in class and will be racing better horses than previously. We have identified 3 other horses in the race which we believe have the ability to beat the favourite.
Finally there are two secondary warning signs in our favour:. Stir Crazy last run was only 1 day ago and so the horse will be tired. Other horses in the race have the benefit of a better draw. In the end the outsider won the race. It wasn't a horse I identified as a threat because it did not seem to have the ability to win the race, but it has proved me wrong. This shows the great thing about laying.
Often an outsider that you don't even consider can come from nowhere and beat the favourite. The above card comes from a class 5 handicap at Brighton over 6my on firm ground. For some reason the Racing Post has not published the tissue prices for the horses. When this happens simply check on Betfair to see what the favourite is.
In this race the favourite was High Class Problem. Primary Warning Signs Looking at the postdata table we can immediately see that the favourite has a question mark over the going. Looking at the horse's race history below we can see that High Class Problem has never raced on firm ground before. This represents the only real primary warning sign for the favourite although we can see that this isn't really a horse of great ability as it's previous best run was a 4th place.
It's seems this horse is not really any great shakes in class 5 events. Furthermore the horse will be carrying 3lb more than it ever has before. Whilst this is not enough to count as a warning sign it certainly puts more doubt in the ability of the horse to win the race. Opposition Next we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we can find one with similar ability to our favourite. Elusive Warrior has no primary warning signs against it's name and seems to be more than a match for the favourite as it has won a class 5 event on it's previous run.
Danish Blues is another horse no primary warning signs against it's name and has the potential to beat the favourite here. Whilst this horse has not won a race before it has had similar results to the favourite and must be considered.
Cindertrack is carrying the heaviest penalty in the race and weight might be a problem. But it is another horse yet to win a race but with results comparable to the favourite and has the potential to win this one. Secondary Warning Signs According to the Racing Post the draw has no effect but looking at my more detailed table on page 37 we can see that in sprints low numbers are favoured.
Our horse is running from stall 7 and will receive no advantage. The jockey has never ridden this horse before and that counts in our favour as the jockey will have no feel for the horse in a racing situation. Conclusion There is one primary warning sign in our favour:.
High Class Problem has never raced on firm ground before. This is the hardest surface there is and it may not be to the horse's liking. The jockey has not ridden this horse before. Another successful lay as our favourite came second. The winner Cindertrack was one of the horses I identified as a major threat and so it proved with a comfortable victory.
The courses are at least 2 miles 16 furlongs long and the horses are started from a tape barrier. Jump horses mature more slowly and don't run until they are 4 or 5-year-olds. Jump racing goes on all year round but its main season runs from November until the end of April. There are 2 main types of jump race, each with different sized barriers. Steeplechases Chases - In these races the horses are made to jump 'fences' which vary in size.
These are the biggest obstacles a horse will have to face. The Grand National is the most prestigious steeplechase event in the U. Hurdles - In these races the horses are made to jump over obstacles measuring about 3 feet 1 inch in height. Another type of jump race is Point to Point Races - These races are run over fences on designated farmland throughout the country in the Spring and Autumn.
This is basically the nursery for young jump horses who will progress to jump over hurdles and fences. We will not be looking at laying horses in point to point races. In jump racing there are also handicaps and non-handicap races. Like on the flat there are different types of races depending on the quality of the field. Maidens As with the flat maidens are run by horses who have never won before.
Novices These are for horses who have not won a race prior to that season. When a horse wins a novice race it can still compete in novices for the rest of that season but it has to carry a weight penalty.
These are special flat races for young jump horses. This is because the horses involved are always mediocre at best and it is very hard to be sure of laying the favourite. What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before this will usually be in novice races , or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and the sticky soft ground will test the horse's stamina.
In jump racing you don't get sprints but the races still vary in distance. Whilst a horse might have done well at the medium distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned. For example you might have a horse with excellent form over 2 miles but has had a couple of dodgy runs over 20 furlongs.
Next time the horse runs 20 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 4 furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and jump races are usually longer than flat races so the horses' stamina will be severely tested. The table below summarises the different classes for jump races:. The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 6 the worst.
We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time or horses which have had bad results in a certain class. Horses who are jumping for the first time can be two different types of horse. Either they have been bred as a national hunt horse or they are a flat-bred horse jumping for the first time. Once again it is impossible to tell how a horse will react to it's first hurdle race. Even if the horse has been racing on the flat before it will have experienced nothing like a hurdles race before.
Again if a horse is a short favourite it could simply be due to its stable connections. Or it may have been a horse with good results on the flat and so automatically gets favouritism. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to hurdling. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles.
Any horse that chases will have been a hurdler at some point. But the fences in a steeplechase are a lot bigger than hurdles and even if a horse is a great hurdler it may not make a great chaser. If we see a short favourite who has never chased before have ourselves a laying opportunity. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to chasing. Over jumps this factor is important in non-handicaps as well. Once a horse wins a novice event it is allowed to compete in other novice races for the rest of the season.
However it must carry a weight penalty. This gives up lots of laying opportunities. Often a horse who has one a novice event will be favourite for the next race due to it's form. However many punters do not take into account the extra weight it is carrying and blindly back it. Often you will see these favourites losing their next race. As with flat racing, weight is very important in handicaps.
We need to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. We do this by considering a second level of factors. We need to be on the lookout for a horse that has not run for 60 days or is running again within 7 days of it's last run. If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same principle as a football player lacking 'match practise'. If a horse runs within 7 days of it's last run it here is a chance it might not have recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina.
This has more significance over jumps than it has on the flat. With National Hunt racing the more horses there are jostling for position over the jumps the more chance there is of horses bringing each other down. Like on the flat this factor is more important in races where there are inexperienced horses racing together such as novice hurdles and novice chases. This is another factor that is more important in National Hunt racing due to the nature of jumping over obstacles.
The jockey and the horse have to be in tune or there is a high risk the horse will fall or refuse to jump. The younger horses have more eratic results and have a greater chance of falling. Horses 5 years old and young get a black mark here. The above card comes from a class 3 handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m6fy on good-firm ground. The horse has a tick for both the going and the distance so we have to look in further detail at the racing history.
We can see that the favourite has never raced in a class 3 event before. It will now be racing against stronger opposition than it has ever faced. This is a relatively high percentage but looking at the other trainers' figures it is not enough to scare us from laying this horse. This horse definitely has the ability to win this race. Harrycat has one primary warning sign against it's name it has a question mark over the distance.
But like our favourite, HarryCat has also won a class 4 hurdle before but more importantly has won a class 3 hurdle as well. This horse is definitely in with a chance of winning this one. Gaelic Roulette has no primary warning signs against it and is another horse that has won a class 4 hurdle before and as such must be considered worthy of winning this race. Rosemauve is carrying the biggest weight penalty of all the horses but it has performed well at this weight before and it may not be a problem.
Thus horse looks like a serious challenger as it has run very well in class 3 hurdle events before. There are 15 runners in this race which is a large field and gives us more chance that the favourite will be hampered during the race. Onward to Glory was a last time out winner which means it will be overbet by the betting public giving us better value. The jockey P Brennan has only raced on the horse once and in that race the horse was soundly beaten.
This could mean the two do not suit each other which is another factor in our favour. Onward To Glory is stepping up in class for this race and has not raced aginst this quality of opposition before. We have identified 4 other horses in the race which we believe have the ability to beat the favourite. Finally there are five secondary warning signs in our favour:.
The favourite has not raced for 64 days and so is out of running practice. The field size of 15 is large and there is more chance the favourite will be hampered. Onward To Glory was a last time out winner and as such will give us more value. As we can see our favourite came fifth. The eventual winner was Harrycat, one of the potential rivals I picked out before the race.
Still that doesn't concern us. All we need to know is that we've had another successful lay. If we are too generous with our odds we will be destroying any value we have in the bets. It is best to lay the horse as close to the race start as possible. This takes place around 10 minutes before the race starts. As we are laying the favourite we are almost guaranteed that our horses' price will drift in the most. This action usually leads to more losses. As good money is thrown in after bad, the limited funds do run out.
Such behavior is intolerable in the professional punting scene. Betting with a good plan, having lots of patience, being consistent and not being greedy are all not worth a penny unless you can follow them strictly. A good system would have its own clearly defined set of rules. This makes the system fully automated enabling the selection of winning horses without any human decision at all.
An astute punter knows the importance of having rules and sticks to them. The law is quite simple: If something works, do not change it! You may be at times tempted to back horses that are being favored by rumors or by media coverage. Betting just a few dollars on such attractions is harmless as long as you don t lose sight of your main objective - to make a consistent profit using the rules outlined in a betting plan.
Well that sums up the important qualities needed to be successful in punting. You may or may not have all of these qualities in you. If you don t, do not panic! With time and patience, you too can master the art of successful punting.
Keep in mind that no one was ever born with winning qualities. If everyone were, then there would be too many successful punters to compete with. The fact is that human behavior naturally discourages having winning qualities. You should take this as a blessing as the more punters we have on the losing side, the easier it is for us to make more money! Analysis of the Betting Market Most punters even the more experienced ones generally fail to realize how the horse betting industry really works.
The usual misconception has been that the betting agencies are a punter s biggest enemy and a big win would mean an equivalent loss to them. On other words, most punters think that the betting agencies continuously try to trick them into not winning. This statement is far from the truth! When you lay a bet at the betting agent or on the Internet, the agency simply takes a certain portion out as its profit and puts the rest towards the betting pool of the type of bet you lay. So you see, it really doesn t matter how much money you win, as the betting agent can never go broke by paying out winners.
In fact any clever agency would want you to win big amounts to increase publicity. Also, after a big win most undisciplined punters usually blow their winnings back into the agency. Such generous behavior pays for the agency owner s holidays to Fiji! Some punters think that other punters are their enemy. This is again far from the truth. The fact of the matter is that there are no enemies in the betting business.
Not even a great recession could stop you from earning a living from racing. Stock market crashes, the strength of your countries currency and inflation have not affect on your chances of making money from racing. Being independent to that of a country s financial factors is the biggest strength of the betting industry.
By many years of constructive experience. By learning from another s experience. This is the easiest way to punting riches. Instead of wasting several years trying the various methods, you can simply follow my ideas and systems and transform yourself into a successful punter in days instead of years! Remember, that there are betting pools for each different type of bet available. On a standard race there would be a win pool, place pool, trifecta pool and a quinella pool. On certain races there would also be a double and treble pool.
You will find that betting pools are relatively larger during the weekend races when compared to the midweek ones. Also, city races and races with high price money usually have larger pools compared to country races and races with smaller prize money.
Before I go any further, I need to clarify two terms that will be used throughout this section. Outsider this are non-favorite horses that pay big dividends and are seen by the betting public as having little chances of winning the race. Favorite I have already defined this term as the horse or horses most favored by the betting public to win.
However, usually any horse within the close vicinity of being able to win the race could be called a favorite. So for this reason the best way to class horses as favorites is to rank them in order of their win price. The horse with the lowest win price is classed as the first favorite; the horse with the next lowest price is the second favorite and so on.
Each horse s speed and strength in relation to the rest of the field is also an important factor that influences price and favoritism. Track Conditions Everything else being equal, track condition is the single most influencing factor to affect the outcome of a race. During the drier seasons the tracks are usually firm and need not be a major concern.
It s a totally different story when the wetter months come around. Most horses find it very difficult to cope with softer tracks especially when they have been continuously racing on firm tracks for several months. A track condition classed as soft is not a major problem but a heavy track is hazardous and notoriously contributes towards upsetting results.
I rarely bet when the track gets heavy. A heavy track could be anything from extremely soft to totally water bogged. It is hard to gauge exactly what the track condition is before a race without being at the tracks so it s better to keep away when the tracks get heavy. An important fact to keep in mind is that even though a track condition could be described as easy or soft early in the morning, it does not mean that the same conditions will exist towards the end of the race day.
After several races have been run, the track condition could easily change. For this reason I would be very wary if the track forecast in the morning newspaper was soft and my bets were laid on horses running towards the end of the race day. I mentioned earlier that heavy tracks caused a lot of upsetting results. The thing to keep in mind is that to whom the results are upsetting to. It is the betting public that influence the price that horses pay in a race so when a favorite paying a low amount running on a heavy track comes fifth, the upset mainly disappoints the betting public.
A skilled punter would have gauged the track conditions and not backed the favorite at all. Knowing when an upset in a race is about to occur is an invaluable skill as when outsiders win, they pay astonishing amounts! As mentioned earlier I hardly bet when the tracks get heavy but when I do, I collect big time. With all this information it may seem confusing as to what track conditions are ideal for betting. The truth is that there are no set rules but you could follow the guidelines below when investing on favorites: When the track is classed as Firm, Fast or Easy as long as it does not rain you should be safe relying on those predictions.
When the track is soft as the morning forecast as long as it does not rain you should be safe placing bets on the first three races. If it rains abandon the race altogether. When the track is classed as heavy abandon the entire race on that track. The truly wonderful thing about today s technology is that at any given day you could invest on several dozen races happening around the country or in other parts of the world.
So, if the weather and track is not all that good in one part of the continent there are always many others to choose from. Exploring the Field Size Mathematics can be used in its pure form to accurately calculate the winning probability of a horse in a race provided all other factors remain constant and all the horses have similar capabilities.
Unfortunately all other factors affecting the outcome of a race never remain constant and the horses running a race never have the same racing capabilities. If these factors did remain constant, there would not be a need for me to write this manual! Just for arguments sake lets say all other factors are constant and all horses in a field have the same chances of winning.
The percentage probability of any horse winning the race could easily be worked by dividing 1 by the total number of horses in the field and then multiplying the result by So in a ten-field horse race the chances of each horse winning would be ten percent or one win out of every ten races.
The law of probability is quite intriguing and when applied to a large field of horses, it decreases the chances of winning significantly. Although the same horse could win a number of times in a row, over a long period of time each horse will win only once out of every ten race.
If a coin is tossed a hundred times, it should land fifty times with the head side facing up and the other fifty times with the tail side facing up. This result can only be achieved when all the variables affecting the outcome of which side the coin lands on remains constant.
On other words the strength at which the coin is dispersed, the wind speed etc should be all the same each time it is tossed. Even though there could be ten or more straight runs of heads or tails, over a hundred or so tosses the number of time head or tail appears will be exactly the same. As far as horses are concerned the number of horses in a field does affect each horse s winning probability but in a very different way.
The biggest threat to a horse in a large field is the fear of being blocked and denied a fair run. This happens far more often then punters realize. Even if a jockey sees a potential blockage and avoids it, valuable time could be wasted by taking a slightly longer path around the other horses.
Some experts might ague that field sizes don t matter on longer races. This is true to a certain degree only. If a race is filled with horses that are of similar caliber then most of the race will take place in clusters with most horses being forced into small groups.
When a race occurs in this manner it will be difficult for a horse to break free and could be denied a fair run regardless of the length of the race. So what is a good field size in which a fair run is granted to all the beasts? I personally like to concentrate on fields no larger than having fourteen animals. Any more than fourteen horses could be a potential block risk. For shorter distances an even smaller field is preferred. For a meter dash for instance, I would much prefer an field size over one that has say 14 animals.
Please keep in mind that field sizes like all other variables that could affect the outcome of a race is only taken into consideration at certain times depending on the strategy that is being used to select a winner. After reading so far you may be wondering how on earth winning odds are set on horses. Well the truth is that there are no correct or fixed ways. The odds displayed at betting agencies are set by the betting public and changes all the time right up till betting closes on the race.
The interesting thing is that odds can be easily manipulated by betting Copyright Horsebettingracingsystem. If the horse being invested on is not the first favorite, it could immediately become one. Remember the shorter the odds of a horse, the more likely it is to win the race in the eyes of the betting public.
Although this concept can be used to quickly gauge the rough winning state of a horse in a field, it cannot be solely relied on to consistently find winning prospects. Finding the Best Barrier Draw This is another very controversial topic among the experts. Some believe that barrier draw is not at all important when it comes to selecting winners. My experience has proven otherwise. In fact I am aware of quite a few professionals who pick their horses largely based on the barrier it draws.
The general rule is that the lower the barrier draw, the better the chances of a horse to have a good clear run. As with field sizes, barrier draws are more critical for shorter races. Any draw of less than and equal to 9 is reasonable for a race of any distance.
Sometimes when the distance is fairly long, say around meters, a draw of 10 or less should do just fine. The longer the race the more are the chances of a poorly drawn horse to overcome the barrier disadvantage.
The chances of getting blocked due to a bad barrier draw also decreases over a longer distance. Once you familiarize yourself with picking winning horses you will find that usually a good horse will be drawn at a good barrier. So for this reason you will notice that a strong horse with a top jockey with a good barrier draw will be easily spotted by the betting public and become a favorite well before the race day even begins.
Minimizing the Negative Impact of Changing Race Distance Just like athletes, horses do not adapt well to sudden distance changes. When a horse trains for and wins a meter race, it will have considerable difficulties running its next race over meters and winning it.
Why this happens cannot fully be explained here but its ability to affect the out come of a race can t be stressed enough. Usually a horse running well over a certain distance at its last race will not take a reduction in distance of more than meters too well. On the other hand an increase in distance of up to meters could be totally harmless.
I have seen countless races where the favorite has lost the race solely due to the significant decrease in distance from its last start. Some racing pundits claim that a good horse should be able to bounce between the different distances. What these so-called racing pundits have not seen is the fatalities such unproven theories have been causing at the tracks!
Unfortunately horses just don t operate in that way. If a horse ran at some stage in the past the distance it is about to run now, it does not guarantee that the horse is at its peak to run the same distance again. The best gauge still remains based on comparing a horse s last start distance to the distance it is about to run. As important as form is to picking winning horses, it is not important enough to be solely relied on to determine the outcome of a race.
In saying that, the betting public usually relies only on form to help select winners. Very few horses can be relied on solely based on the consistency of its wins throughout its career. Just like humans, horses also have a life cycle. How to Ride The Winning Wave of a Peak Performer The Typical Life Cycle of a Thoroughbred The first part is obviously when they start their racing career Then towards their peak they show some exceptional results At the end of the cycle they generally win as outsiders and upsets This does not mean that horses do not perform well during the early stages and towards the end of their careers.
It simply sates the typical life cycle of a thoroughbred. There are at any one time quite a few horses that perform extremely well when just starting out racing. Usually it is easy to spot these outstanding animals and fortunes have been made by following and backing such candidates. The biggest advantage of laying your bets on these energetic winners is that they usually pay relatively high dividends. This is due to such horses not having a strong enough form therefore tricking most punters to take the winnings as freak winnings and continue to back the favorite.
In doing so the dividend is protected while at the same time reduces the favorite s dividend even further. Some horses also have long winning runs during the peak time of their life cycle. Unfortunately it does not take long before the betting public spots such an opportunity and squashes the dividends to just a few dollars by heavily backing such horses.
Even with such low dividends, it is an easy way to make quick returns on investment. Wouldn t you rather have some small amount of almost certain return over zero amount Copyright Horsebettingracingsystem. Many actually make a living by following such prospects.
The consistency of horses racing in harness races makes the reliance on form for such events critical. It is not unusual to find trotters and pacers having up to ten or more consistent wins and places. Although such horses are heavily backed by punters, the low dividends should not be a deterrent as consistent small winnings quickly accumulates into large amounts of serious cash! Real Life Experience I once started backing a trotter after its very strong fourth win.
It placed fifteen times straight after that win with thirteen of those fifteen runs running into clear wins. Each time I collected the dividends it felt like Christmas all over again. Those were the early days in my betting career and since then I have rode countless such winning waves. Well now that you know that form can be used to determine a horse s peak, let s look at how it affects a horse s performance at a race. An obvious mistake made by millions of punters throughout the world is the comparison of the form of the various horses in a field to each other in order to locate a winning prospect.
This frequent mistake is quite easily made by even the more experienced player due to the way the horses are arranged in a field. The comparison in this manner just seems easier as it would be difficult comparing each and every horse to its last race and then comparing the results to the current race. The biggest downside in comparing horses in a field by their form only is due to the fact that opponents in the current race will have different strength, class and weight compared to the last race.
To make matters even more difficult there are other factors such as track condition, type of jockey, the field size, race distance and many other factors that could have been different in the last race. So for this reason comparing forms of the different horses in a field can only be used as part of the selection process but not solely relied on to pick winners.
However, with many of the higher priced races where the winner walks away with considerable sums of money, form could be used as a very important selection criterion. This is possible due to the fact that horses that line up for such events run races of very similar field before qualifying for high priced feature events. Although not the best way of making a field even in strength, the practice is widely used and cannot be ignored.
I generally do not consider a small amount of added weight a threat to a horse s performance. However, if you select a horse that is at the top of the weight list to win then you do have to look at things a bit differently. If it is significantly heavier than the next heaviest horse I would seriously reconsider investing on such a prospect.
On the other hand if the horse you have selected to win is lighter than most of its opponents that are of similar strength then your pick could be at an advantage. The best scenario for picking a winning horse by its weight is selecting a horse that is at the same weight or lighter than its rivals and is of similar strength plus it is carrying lesser weight in this race when compared to its last start.
As long as your selection ran well in the last race and is running with a similar field at the current race, you can be assured a good performance. How to Spot a Good Winning Jockey A good jockey could be as vital as making the difference between winning and losing for a horse in a race.
This is only true when you have two or more horses with similar strengths and capabilities in a field. Although jockeys play a significant part of horse racing, they are only just as important as any other variable when it comes to selecting winners. It is really quite easy to spot top jockeys as most racing publications have names of the top twenty jockeys published in the racing guide pages. These lists are updated regularly and can be relied on for its accuracy.
It is important not to rely on percentages alone to pick a top jockey. A jockey with a slightly lower win percentage rate over several starts could be more favorably relied on when compared to one that has a higher win percentage rate but has had only a handful of starts. I am usually not too fussed on the caliber of the jockey that rides my selected horse. If you have followed horses in the past, you would have noticed that every so often you get a far superior horse ending up lining against a relatively weak team of horses.
These strong horses that stand heads and shoulders above the rest of the field are called Hot Favorites or Super Hot Favorites. Although being hot favorites or super hot favorites, they don t always win. There are several other factors that affect how well they will perform regardless of how superior they look when compared to the rest of the field.
My selection method is based on identifying these horses and applying a set of rules to eliminate any Risk Factors they may carry. Generally hot favorites and super hot favorites don t pay high dividends. However these small payouts accumulates very quickly when used with my staking plans and develops into an excellent investment program with a very high strike rate.
You do not need to settle for low dividends even if you use the tote. Sometimes the number of horses actually end up racing is less than the total number that is initially selected to run a race. The horses that do not end up running are called scratching.
Most of the scratching takes place first thing in the morning of a race day. Rule 1 is affected because it oversees field size. Rule 2 checks for barrier draws. For example if your prospect is horse number 6 drawn at barrier 10 therefore it will not pass Rule 2. However is 2 horses are scratched and drops the barrier draw of horse 6 to 8, then obviously the prospect now passes Rule 2.
The same applies to field sizes. So, in the above example if the field size was 15 horses before scratching the race will not pass Rule 1. But after scratching the field size becomes 13, therefore now passing Rule 1. You are guaranteed a fixed winning amount regardless of how much money is piled onto a horse for a win, place or combination bet. Tote dividends are offered by regular betting agencies. The tote divided changes throughout the race depending on how much money gets piled onto a horse in relative to other horses.
A fair indication of what the final dividend is going to be is to look at the dividend just minutes before the race starts. Identifying Favorites From now on I ll assume that you have very little or no betting knowledge so please bear with me while I explain how you can quickly spot favorites, hot favorites and super hot favorites at any race meeting.
All dividends mention here is based on TOTE dividends. Favorite: All races have at least one favorite horse. Some have several. In any race where the favorite horse is only marginally superior to the rest of the field is classed as just a favorite. When you look at the Tipster Panel you ll find that the experts have varied opinions as to which horse will win in that race. Also, the win dividend of a favorite horse is fairly close to the next most favored horse. Hot Favorite: In any race where almost all the panel of experts in the Tipster Panel have selected only one horse to win, this horse will be a hot favorite.
To use the win dividend to locate hot favorites, simply look for races where there is a substantial gap between the win dividend of the most favored horse when compared to the next most favored horse. We DO select hot favorites for our selection process. Super Hot Favorites: Super hot favorites are basically hot favorites with a fair bit of news coverage. On other words the newspapers actually run articles commenting on how easily a particular horse will win its race.
So, a super hot favorite will be chosen by almost all the tipster experts to win, it will have a win dividend substantially smaller than the next most favored horse and will have media coverage commenting on how easily it will win its race. We Do select super hot favorites for our selection process. NOTE: You will generally find only around 2 hot favorites and 1 super hot favorite on any race day at a particular meeting.
Sometimes the fields are quite open and there are no Copyright Horsebettingracingsystem. Please don t select horses that do not qualify just for the sake of making a bet as the rules won t apply in such cases. Once you have your prospect, apply the following rules to qualify the horse as a secure investment. To get such a high strike rate I vigorously select only super hot favorites and slightly modify most of the 7 rules: Copyright Horsebettingracingsystem. I must warn you though that there are far fewer prospects to bet on each week with such tight rules.
Variation 1: Use only Super Hot Favorites and apply my modified rules. This will give you an extremely high strike rate but not much action. Well above average strike rate and many selections are available each week. This will give you plenty of action and a slightly above average strike rate.
Some of my clients have reported to achieve outstanding results by simply selecting Hot Favorites and Super Hot Favorites and ensuring that the track is not classed as soft or heavy. So as long the track is classed as Fast, Fine, and Good or anything other than indicating soft or heavy you can safely place you bets.
You could bet the whole amount just for a place, the choice is yours. Once your betting bank doubles in size from units to , double your betting amount therefore doubling both your win and place bets. General Guide Lines to Keep You "On Track" Always keep in mind the five factors that could lead to your failure in the betting industry: 1- Not having a good betting plan 2- Lack of patience 3- Lack of consistency 4- Being too greedy 5- Not being disciplined enough Overcome the "Now" Factor The now syndrome is the cause of down fall for almost all punters.
Typically focusing on profiting from a particular race or race day, they don't have a long-term goal let alone a specified plan to use. Serious betting is a business and business is about being prepared. To become a professional punter you must set long-term goals, plan a betting strategy, know what you want to achieve in six months, a year and three years and then work your plan.
Here's what you would naturally do. Find the safest betting medium such as place betting and bet with only a small portion of the amount. Why would you do this? Because you can t afford to lose the whole amount on a risky bet. You see, the biggest mistake a punter can make is to try and make too much too quickly from too little.
Disclaimer Please make sure you read this disclaimer all the way through and contact us if there is anything you don't understand before you use the contents of this guide. We always recommend that you. Strike Rate!! Introduction Firstly, congratulations of becoming an owner of this fantastic selection system. You ll find it difficult to find a system that can produce so many winners at such low liability. By purchasing this ebook you now have access to a very simple, yet highly profitable system to make TAX FREE profits with horse racing.
To make your experience of using RewardBet with your LuxBet account more enjoyable, the following guide answers a number. Please note although. Please play responsibly. The first. Neither the seller. Updated: May. Contents Betfair - The basics The right has been asserted in accordance with the copyright, designs and patents act All Rights Reserved..
If you re new to. Follow these easy step by step instructions and you will This Version of the ebook is for all countries other than the USA. If you need the. Of course you are. Who isn t? There is more to making.
If you like a flutter on the horses or any other sport then I would strongly recommend Betfair to place those bets. I find it amazing the number of people still using high street bookmakers which offer. Equotion Working with Equotion Working with Equotion This how to guide has been pulled together to help new users get the most out of the Equotion system.
Part of this is to make sure that you understand. Because of their breeding potential, the average career of. Table of contents Start Components - Four Factors Formula - Form Reading Method: In this report we will cover the races we looked at in the videos to quickly form ready any race and place horses into the FFF using Race card examples. Many of us have read Jack Schwager s Market Wizards books at least once. As you may recall it.
These days we are bombarded with below par freebies that. Advanced handicapping made easy. Handicapping is the art or science of selecting a winning horse based on the information that is available to you before the race. A first time visitor to the track might. Sports Hedge Sport Hedging for the millionaire inside us, a manual for hedging and profiting for a growing portfolio Congratulations, you are about to have access to the techniques sports books do not.
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This ebook is only available from www. Man Vs Bookie The 3 ways to make profit betting on Football Sports Betting can be one of the most exciting and rewarding forms of entertainment and is enjoyed by millions of people around the world. Risky Business Simone, Paula, and Randy meet in the library every.
Club Accounts. Anyone familiar with Farm Accounts or Service Firms notes for both topics are back on the webpage you found this on , will have no trouble with Club Accounts. Archie, a method of evaluating systems By Steve Tilley reproduced and amended with permission One of the problems we encounter frequently is deciding how good a system is.
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