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Load More. League Betting Guides. Betting Against Ranked Teams. NBA Betting Theories. These are not the most common type of wager, but they occur with relative frequency in all major sports. All that matters is the total between them.
So in a game between two teams in which the given total is , you might bet under if you expect a low-scoring game in which neither team clears points. You might also bet over if you expect both teams to score well over , or even if you just expect one team to score enough to clear the difference. If, however, the above game results in a combined score of , the game will result in what is known as a push. This means that nobody wins, and all of the money is refunded. Sometimes, sportsbooks will try to prevent this from happening by setting totals numbers with half-points on the end.
The point spread will always be the same number for each team, and again the positive number will denote which team is the underdog while the negative number indicates the favorites. The money lines for each team, however, may differ slightly. Point spreads are the most common type of bet for basketball and football games. The way point spreads work is that the favored team has to win by more points than indicated by the spread, while the underdog has to either win the game or else simply lose by fewer points than indicated by the spread.
Since there are technically more outcomes that will allow the underdog to beat the spread, you will sometimes see more juice charged on the underdog when you are betting on point spreads. A sportsbook with these odds is expecting Golden State to win, but they are slightly favoring the Cavs to beat the spread and are therefore collecting more juice on those bets. Also note in the above example that the point spread is given a half-point, meaning that Cleveland must lose by 12 or less or else win the game , while the Warriors have to win by 13 or more.
A push in regards to point spreads is when the difference between the two scores is exactly the same number as the number listed for the point spread, similar to its definition in totals play. It is not too difficult to understand why many sportsbooks prefer to use half-points to prevent this from happening.
Parlays are similar to betting point spreads, but in this case you are betting on more than one game at the same time. The first thing you need to know is that they are incredibly risky, since losing any one of the games that you add to your parlay results in a loss on the whole thing. The reason that some people like to bet parlays is that the odds appear to be greater. The money line for a parlay will usually be determined by taking each of the decimal lines for the teams that you have wagered on, multiplying them by one another, and converting them to the appropriate money line.
However, they do not always work this way, and each sportsbook may vary in how they arrive at their given payout. Many, for instance, will ignore the money lines for each team in the parlay and simply set their odds according to how many teams are included.
Also note that many sportsbooks will offer teasers , parlays in which the spreads have been altered to make them easier to beat. However, the payout on such bets is usually far less than it would be for a standard parlay, and the odds of winning every bet included in the parlay are still rather low. There are other bets that we have not covered in detail, such as futures , prop bets , and more. However, they may simply lead up to smaller championships, usually with a slightly smaller payout.
Proposition bets, or prop bets, are generally bets on specific stats. There is an immense variation in which prop bets might be offered at various sportsbooks. These bets are not necessarily too common for beginners, although they can certainly be fun in moderation. The odds of winning prop bets will depend upon the nature of the prop bets themselves, so be sure not to overdo them and only make use of prop bets at your utmost discretion. This covers most major types of bets, and should certainly get you through the basics of what you need to know.
Any information you are looking for that is not covered by the above regarding various types of wagers will likely fall far outside the purview of a beginners guide to sports betting such as this one. But who are the people setting these lines in the first place? More importantly, just how do they operate?
Well, usually, sportsbooks will open their lines fairly early. Things start to change, however, as more and more bettors make their plays. As we have mentioned before, the oddsmakers have to make sure that approximately equal numbers of bettors are betting on each side of the line if they want to make sure that they make a solid profit from the juice.
As bettors make their plays at the sportsbooks, the bookmakers look to see which side is getting more bets and adjust the lines to try and lure more bettors into betting on the side that has been neglected by comparison. Once the sportsbooks begin to achieve a balance between bets on each sides of the lines, they will likely start to raise the betting limits.
Of course, not every sportsbook will follow this exact same strategy. Some sportsbooks might not alter their lines too much, while some may try to influence bets to lean toward one side rather than trying to strike a balance. It all depends upon the goals of the bookmakers and how they think they are likely to make more money. Some will also engage in a practice called shading, which is basically inflating the value of the team they expect to be more popular with bettors.
There are a lot of chalk players out there, bettors who will only wager on teams that are favored by the sportsbooks. These types of bettors make it easy for sportsbooks to shade their lines, because they know that these players will pay the extra juice for the promise of reduced winnings, rather than taking a chance on the underdog. It should be clear by now that the sportsbooks have it figured out in terms of how they can be most profitable.
Your profits may start small, but will grow into something bigger over time. We already told you about chalk players in the section above, and you might notice that the way we described them kind of made them sound like fodder for the sportsbooks. Now, do you think that they would have sounded that way if they were constantly just rolling in the dough?
There is no such thing as a set winner, and you may notice that the decimal lines we gave you when we were looking at no-juice lines in the above sections were much closer than the decimal lines we gave before factoring out the vigorish. Some sites that specialize in giving advice to those with an interest in sports betting have suggested tracking your plays for as much as a full year before deciding whether or not you think you have the edge that it takes to be a profitable sports bettor.
To be a truly profitable sports bettor, you have to check a few things when tracking your picks. First of all, you want to see how your picks fare in comparison to the opening lines set by the sportsbooks, not just the closing lines. Bear in mind that the lines shift over time, so the opening lines are more indicative of what the sportsbook was actually expecting from each team.
When tracking your bets, there are a few more specific stats you will want to note. The first is your ROI, or return on investment. Divide your profits on a bet by the amount you put into it, and you will see about how much you are making on an average play. You will want to look at your ROI for individual wins, but you also want to see the profit you have made over time compared to how much money you have put forth in general since you began your foray into sports betting.
You also want to see how often you are beating the closing line. Do not just look at how often you have beat the closing line, but also figure out the average for how many times you have beaten it compared to how many times you have wagered. You may not fully understand this as a beginner, but the frequency with which a handicapper is able to beat the closing line is a reflection on their skill level, as it is unlikely that they are beating the closing line often by sheer luck alone.
Some will give you other useful stats such as your Z score, which predicts your possible rate of success in the future. You definitely want a service that offers this stat. Another stat that should be offered by the service you choose to utilize is R-squared.
It is a bit difficult to explain mathematically, but basically you are looking at consistency. Consistency in your win rate also allows you some leeway in terms of bankroll management. If you want to make sure that you really have an edge when it comes to sports betting, then your pick tracker should offer this stat.
Do some research and figure out which service you like most, focusing on services with stats such as R-squared and Z scores. We have already written a number of articles on which stats you must heed when betting on various sports, most of which were linked in the intro to this guide. Look around at some of our articles on various sports, and figure out which stats you need to be researching in order to make the best plays you can.
And if that sounds like too much work, then ask yourself the following question…. We linked our packages page at the beginning of this guide, but there are things that you need to know about us and really about all handicapping consultants if you are going to bother using our services to begin with. If you can afford the help of consistent winners such as ourselves then we recommend you take advantage of what we have to offer, but you might still want to know a little bit about how we work.
Now, while we and many of our competitors may occasionally mention win percentages, we already covered above that these percentages do not have to be too high to be profitable. You will be working with a low sample size, but it will still be helpful to have these numbers. Of course, another major thing that you will need to look at is the sheer price of the service you are planning to use.
If you have looked at our packages page and have tracked some picks using our free trial , then you already know whether or not we are the service for you. But, in fairness to you, we should suggest that you do not pick a package that costs more than the amount you have in your bankroll. Remember that you will not always get your payouts immediately, so even winning with such numbers can feel a lot like losing in the short term.
Remember that truly successful sports bettors often make profits that are relatively small, but still worth the effort they have put forth. Someone promising to profit from just about every play is trying to sell you lies because they think that you are either irrational, inexperienced, or both. And while we maintain that this is a much less exciting way to bet, there are some benefits to it.
If you want to trust the service you are using, you might want to refrain from watching most games for a while. Your emotions during these games may cloud your judgment. Go by the numbers, not by how you felt when watching the games. This can be true whether your plays are winning or losing. If you win numerous times in a row, you might think that you can push your streak, whereas losing too many times in a row may cause you to become reckless out of desperation.
Stay the course. The last thing we want to talk about in terms of profitability is the sports on which you choose to bet. It is highly unlikely that a bettor would ever manage to beat the closing line on every single game like this, but this will still provide you with an idea of how profitable each sport can be.
As such, these are the sports for which we read the following numbers. In each sport, college bets seemed to offer greater profitability. Bets on college basketball games were also more frequent, with a sample size of compared to the NBA sample size of For college football and the NFL, the sample sizes were and , respectively.
Again, the sample size was much larger for college games. The sample size for NHL bets was , which is again higher than that of pro or college football. However, bear in mind that these numbers were not figured with the assumption that the hypothetical bettor would win every play, merely that they would always bet the home team. So you can potentially expect greater returns, but that does not mean that one sport is not still technically more profitable than another.
This simply gives you an idea of which sports are most popular for bettors, and which ones offer the greatest potential ROI. If your bankroll allows you to bet quite a bit over the course of a month, then you might be able to clean up pretty well by following all of the plays we give you. There are a lot of issues that must be taken into account when trying to decide upon the best sportsbook for you. In fact, there are so many issues to take into account that we recommend you familiarize yourself with more than one book.
Most online sportsbooks also offer various bonuses for signing up with them. Such bonuses may include anything from a free trial to even a few free plays, allowing you the potential to make a bit of money without having to risk anything. This can be incredibly useful if played well, and will allow you to start making returns before you have made any type of investment. You want to do your research when looking at sportsbooks to ensure that you are getting the best bonuses possible.
However, one of the most important bonuses that you will want to look for is reductions on the juice. This may not be the most common feature offered by most sportsbooks, but you can find it offered by some if you look hard enough.
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